The California primary election for Governor is heating up, with former Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra leading the pack, according to a recent Emerson College Polling survey. Becerra's surge in support, driven by his appeal to Democratic voters, has propelled him to the top spot, with 19% of the vote. This marks a significant nine-point increase since mid-April, solidifying his position as the frontrunner. The poll also reveals a close race for the second spot, with Steve Hilton and Tom Steyer neck and neck at 17% each. Katie Porter and Matt Mahan trail behind with 10% and 8% support, respectively, while 12% of voters remain undecided.
What makes this race particularly intriguing is the dynamic nature of voter preferences. When considering undecided voters' leanings, Becerra's support rises to 20%, while Steyer and Hilton each gain one point, and Porter sees a three-point boost. This highlights the fluidity of the race and the potential for shifts in voter sentiment as the campaign progresses.
The poll also sheds light on the Los Angeles Mayor primary, where incumbent Mayor Karen Bass leads with 30% support, followed by television personality Spencer Pratt at 22% and City Councilmember Nithya Raman at 19%. Bass's support has increased significantly since March, while Pratt and Raman have also gained ground, with undecided voters now making up only 16% of the electorate.
One interesting demographic trend emerges in the mayoral race: an age divide. Voters over 60 overwhelmingly support Bass, while younger voters under 40 lean towards Raman. This highlights the differing priorities and preferences among different age groups in the city.
In terms of issue priorities, Californians are most concerned about the economy, with 42% citing it as the top issue. Housing affordability is a close second at 21%, while threats to democracy, immigration, healthcare, and crime also rank highly. These findings underscore the complex and multifaceted challenges facing the state.
The Emerson College Polling survey, conducted May 9-10, 2026, provides valuable insights into the California primary race. With a sample size of 1,000 likely primary voters and 350 likely voters in Los Angeles, the poll has a credibility interval of +/- 3% and +/- 5.2%, respectively. The survey was conducted online and weighted by demographics to ensure a representative sample.
However, it's important to note that the survey's credibility intervals are higher for subsets based on demographics, such as gender, age, education, and race/ethnicity. This means that the poll's results should be interpreted within the context of the poll's range of scores, and there is a 1 in 20 chance that the poll's results will fall outside the range.
In conclusion, the California primary election for Governor is shaping up to be a closely contested race, with Becerra leading the pack but facing strong competition from Hilton and Steyer. The poll highlights the dynamic nature of voter preferences and the importance of understanding the diverse priorities of California's electorate. As the campaign progresses, the outcome of this race will have significant implications for the future of California's governance and policy-making.
